This is my map for the next run in bitcoin (BTC) as per my mid-November guestimates:
You can look at it this way, too:
This is the trajectory I’m expecting over the next few weeks. It is fiendishly difficult to predict these verticals. It doesn’t matter if it’s dot.com, Apple
Trees don’t grow to the skies, says the old speculator’s proverb, but actually they do, at least from where I stand 100 feet below. So what is an investor—let’s read speculator— to do?
The answer is to keep their position as part of a diversified portfolio or at least deal with it as if this is a goal. If BTC hits $30,000 I will consider lightening up. I might liquidate but I also might hold on, depending on what is happening.
Bitcoin is less likely to quadruple than ether (ETH) and below these titans there is a world of small token projects bubbling up.
One way to diversify is to break up a lumpy bitcoin position into a series of small crypto positions. At BTC $30,000 I will certainly be thinking about that possibility.
Then there is the Coinbase IPO. That will certainly be a stock to get into your portfolio and sit on for the next ten years. So perhaps I will cash some BTC and swap it for Coinbase and if any bookrunner wants to cut me in on some sweet IPO stock I’m here waiting for your call (just kidding).
Crypto is now a train of investment opportunities. There are cryptocurrencies with bitcoin and ether being the royalty of this scene. I like monero (XMR), litecoin (LTC) and even the dodgy dogecoin (DOGE), the rising tide will raise all coins, but I do not hold anything except BTC and ETH.
Then comes DeFi, which is going to be massive in 2021. This is a juggernaut that is as sure to change the world as was computers and the internet, except it won’t take as long. I have lots of these deliriously exciting project tokens. I keep repeating myself but I will continue. Any self-respecting investor should be skilling up on this new phenomenon; there is a golden period of high profits to be made coming up over the next few years.
Finally, there is NFT (nonfungible tokens) coming up behind. NFT are tokens that can lock up and protect digital items. You can giggle at Cryptokittens, which are a NFT project but the gaming folks are only pioneering a sector where real assets, many of which are now wholly digital, will be made unique by this technology and open up yet another new powerful horizon of financial and non-financial products.
This triple whammy is enough to slingshot crypto forwards for years but it also implies an even bigger opportunity.
Blockchain technology coupled with cryptography is an engine of invention capable of spawning game-changing innovation after game-changing innovation. Bitcoin is not even the tip of an iceberg, it is a mushroom popping above the surface of a massive network of opportunities fermenting, spreading, invisibly building the next big technology wave. That is why breath-taking young technical talent is being sucked into crypto’s gravity and starting to spew forth an amazing diversity of thrilling new computing.
You can discard everything else if you want a simple investment case for crypto. The depth of talent firing up the crypto landscape is enough alone to make this arena pivotal in the coming decades and right now you can buy the lot, the whole shooting match, all the coins and tokens listed, for the price of Tesla.
Which is why I shall probably be hanging on to my bitcoin at $30,000 and begging for mercy.
2021 is going to be big for crypto and especially DeFi. Make sure your masks are tied on tight!
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Clem Chambers is the CEO of private investors website ADVFN.com and author of 101 Ways to Pick Stock Market Winners and Trading Cryptocurrencies: A Beginner’s Guide.
Chambers won Journalist of the Year in the Business Market Commentary category in the State Street U.K. Institutional Press Awards in 2018.